Level-Headed Investing

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2025 in Review: From Transformation to Sedimentation

How I kept concentrating into higher-quality compounders while using volatility to upgrade the portfolio
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2025 in Review: From Transformation to Sedimentation
How I kept concentrating into higher-quality compounders while using volatility to upgrade the portfolio
 • Bernardo
MercadoLibre (MELI) Q4 2025 Results: Paying for Growth on Purpose
44.6% growth, 5-6 points of margin traded for scale, speed, and fintech penetration
 • Bernardo
Evolution AB's Q4 2025 Results: Flat Live Revenue, Contracting Leverage, and Why I Exited
Europe's channelization is slipping, Asia cybercrime issue has no timeline, and growth is shifting to lower-leverage regions
 • Bernardo
Amazon's Q4 2025 Earnings and 2026 Outlook: Strong Results and a $200B CapEx Plan
Solid fundamentals, an outsized CapEx guide, and the signposts that will define 2026
 • Bernardo
Constellation Software (CSU.TO): AI "Software Is Dead" Headlines, Compounding Still Alive
A framework for underwriting CSU when the market treats software as a single risk bucket
 • Bernardo
Amazon Catalysts in 2026 and Beyond
Commerce cost-to-serve deflation, re-accelerating AWS economics, and rising ad profitability
 • Bernardo
Level-Headed Investing
Level-Headed Investing
I share my personal journey through the ups and downs of investing: my decisions, mistakes, and lessons learned. With a focus on long-term, disciplined investing, the goal is to provide thoughtful insights and real-world experience.
Top posts
Culture of Consumerism: The Default Is Spend
Why Western economies nudge consumption, and how to build a personal counterculture
Why Saving Is Hard: The Psychology of Spending
How modern consumption leverages human wiring, and how to design guardrails that protect slack
 • Bernardo
The Demographics of Slack and Saving
A life-stage map of housing burden, fixed obligations, and who actually has margin to save
Lifestyle Inflation Trap: The Upgrade-to-Obligation Pipeline
A behavioral map of how lifestyle upgrades become fixed costs, and the guardrails that protect slack
 • Bernardo
CoreWeave (CRWV) Q3 2025: When The Interest Bill Becomes the Story
When I wrote When Growth Runs on Debt: The CoreWeave Case Study the core point wasn’t that AI infrastructure demand is fake.
 • Bernardo
Amazon Catalysts in 2026 and Beyond
Commerce cost-to-serve deflation, re-accelerating AWS economics, and rising ad profitability
 • Bernardo
Are AI Chip "Useful Lives" Creating Useless Earnings?
Michael Burry's depreciation warning, hyperscaler AI CapEx, and the cash reality at Alphabet and Amazon
 • Bernardo
Selling PDD Holdings (PDD): Upgrading My Portfolio While Staying Bullish on China
How disclosure quality, relative conviction, and risk diversification led me to rotate out of PDD and into UBER and CSU
 • Bernardo
Evolution AB's Q3 2025: When Short-Term Problems Become Structural
How Q3 (and Q2) results force a rethink of my investment thesis, and what must change for Evolution to re-earn a growth multiple
 • Bernardo
Recommendations
Market Sentiment
Market Sentiment
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Baiguan - China Insights, Data, Context
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Baiguan
How They Make Money
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App Economy Insights
Capitalist Letters
Capitalist Letters
Oguz Erkan
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