Level-Headed Investing

Amazon's Q4 2025 Earnings and 2026 Outlook: Strong Results and a $200B CapEx Plan

Solid fundamentals, an outsized CapEx guide, and the signposts that will define 2026

Feb 18 • Bernardo

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Invert the Market's AI CapEx Panic

Why "supply constrained" is the tell and what would prove returns on incremental AI capacity

Feb 13 • Bernardo

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Constellation Software (CSU.TO): AI "Software Is Dead" Headlines, Compounding Still Alive

A framework for underwriting CSU when the market treats software as a single risk bucket

Feb 4 • Bernardo

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January 2026

Culture of Consumerism: The Default Is Spend

Why Western economies nudge consumption, and how to build a personal counterculture

Jan 28

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Why Saving Is Hard: The Psychology of Spending

How modern consumption leverages human wiring, and how to design guardrails that protect slack

Jan 21 • Bernardo

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The Demographics of Slack and Saving

A life-stage map of housing burden, fixed obligations, and who actually has margin to save

Jan 14

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Lifestyle Inflation Trap: The Upgrade-to-Obligation Pipeline

A behavioral map of how lifestyle upgrades become fixed costs, and the guardrails that protect slack

Jan 7 • Bernardo

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December 2025

CoreWeave (CRWV) Q3 2025: When The Interest Bill Becomes the Story

When I wrote When Growth Runs on Debt: The CoreWeave Case Study the core point wasn’t that AI infrastructure demand is fake.

Dec 30, 2025 • Bernardo

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Amazon Catalysts in 2026 and Beyond

Commerce cost-to-serve deflation, re-accelerating AWS economics, and rising ad profitability

Dec 22, 2025 • Bernardo

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Are AI Chip "Useful Lives" Creating Useless Earnings?

Michael Burry's depreciation warning, hyperscaler AI CapEx, and the cash reality at Alphabet and Amazon

Dec 4, 2025 • Bernardo

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November 2025

Selling PDD Holdings (PDD): Upgrading My Portfolio While Staying Bullish on China

How disclosure quality, relative conviction, and risk diversification led me to rotate out of PDD and into UBER and CSU

Nov 27, 2025 • Bernardo

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Evolution AB's Q3 2025: When Short-Term Problems Become Structural

How Q3 (and Q2) results force a rethink of my investment thesis, and what must change for Evolution to re-earn a growth multiple

Nov 20, 2025 • Bernardo

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